Sightful Invest
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Politics
  • Stock
Top Posts
Top 5 moments from Charlie Kirk’s memorial service...
Trump set to approve TikTok deal ensuring majority-American...
Harris is speaking. This time, she isn’t bending...
Hamas letter to Trump asks for 60-day ceasefire...
Trump must make UN funding conditional on real...
Democrats skip Charlie Kirk Arizona memorial after 58...
‘Due to overhelming support:’ Turning Point USA says...
Thune slams Democrats’ ‘cold-blooded partisan’ tactics as funding...
Macron stakes anti-Trump global role with Gaza initiative...
Trump assassination attempt suspect Ryan Routh questions first...
  • Business
  • Investing
  • Politics
  • Stock

Sightful Invest

Investing

​Copper​ Market Hit by Major Supply Squeeze as LME Inventories Drop

by admin June 26, 2025
June 26, 2025
​Copper​ Market Hit by Major Supply Squeeze as LME Inventories Drop

One of the sharpest copper supply crunches in recent memory is rattling global commodities markets, as inventories at the London Metal Exchange (LME) plummet and the spot price soars.

Bloomberg reported that as of Monday (June 23), copper for immediate delivery was trading at a premium of US$345 per metric ton over three month futures, the widest spread since a record squeeze in 2021.

That dramatic price divergence reflects the market’s acute concerns over access to physical copper, with readily available inventories on the LME falling by around 80 percent this year alone.

Available stockpiles now cover less than a single day of global demand, amplifying anxiety across the supply chain.

Historic backwardation signals market distress

Backwardation in metals markets typically suggests that buyers are scrambling to obtain physical supply. In copper’s case, a combination of logistical, geopolitical and structural forces is driving the surge.

LME stockpiles have been rapidly drawn down as traders and manufacturers shift metal to the US in anticipation of potential trade barriers, spurred by US President Donald Trump’s tariff moves.

That migration has created acute shortages in Europe and Asia. Chinese smelters, responding to the price premium and slackening domestic demand, have begun exporting surplus copper to global markets. Yet those flows have not kept pace with the drawdowns, and China’s own inventories have also dwindled.

The LME had hoped recent regulatory interventions would prevent another disorderly squeeze like the one that disrupted the nickel market in 2022. Last week, the exchange enacted new rules mandating that traders with large front-month positions offer to lend those holdings if they exceed available inventories.

The so-called “front-month lending rule” is meant to discourage hoarding and promote liquidity.

However, recent copper trading data suggest that no single trader is behind the current squeeze. On Monday, the Tom/next spread — a one day lending rate — spiked to US$69 per metric ton.

This would only occur if no one entity held enough copper to trigger lending obligations under the new rules, indicating the tightness is likely the result of broad-based market dynamics rather than manipulation.

LME tightens oversight

As mentioned, the LME has begun cracking down on oversized positions across its metals complex.

In a June 20 statement, the exchange introduced a temporary, market-wide rule to manage large front-month exposures. Under the updated rules, traders holding positions in the front-month contract for a metal that exceed the total available exchange inventories — excluding any stock they already own — must offer to lend those positions at “level,” meaning they are required to roll them over to the next month at the same price.

The rule aims to rein in aggressive moves by commodities trading houses that have made deep inroads into metals markets over the past year. The LME emphasized in its release that recent market interventions are targeted, adding that the newly introduced rule offers a standardized approach.

Still, the unprecedented depth of copper’s backwardation — now extending years into the future — suggests that broader supply/demand dynamics are at play, beyond what position limits alone can control.

For manufacturers and industrial users, the squeeze presents a serious cost and planning risk. Many rely on the LME as a pricing and hedging mechanism. But when exchange inventories drop this low, even large players can face trouble sourcing metal to meet contract obligations. With exchange-based supply nearly exhausted, companies may increasingly turn to off-market deals or bilateral supply agreements — often at higher prices.

This shift weakens the LME’s role as a central clearinghouse for global copper, and raises questions about its ability to handle future shocks, especially as energy transition policies boost long-term demand for the metal.

Market watchers will also be looking to the next moves from Chinese exporters, US trade policy under Trump and the LME’s enforcement of its new regulations.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

previous post
Exploring Mining’s Silver Discussion with Apollo Silver, and Mining Expert Chris Temple
next post
Settlement of Tranche 1 Share Placement

You may also like

What is the Gold Spot Price? (Updated 2024)

September 11, 2024

5 Best-performing ASX Gold Stocks of 2024

September 11, 2024

Syntheia Announces First 1,000 Subscriptions

February 15, 2025

Top 5 Junior Copper Stocks on the TSXV...

July 20, 2024

5 Biggest Pharmaceutical ETFs in 2024

August 22, 2024

How Would a New BRICS Currency Affect the...

July 22, 2024

Update – Blackstone Merger to Acquire Copper Gold...

May 7, 2025

LaFleur Minerals Provides Update on Beacon Mill Restart,...

March 21, 2025

Tim Drilling Program Completed; Crews Mobilizing to Haldane...

September 5, 2024

Appointment of Managing Director

July 29, 2025

Recent Posts

  • Top 5 moments from Charlie Kirk’s memorial service in Arizona
  • Trump set to approve TikTok deal ensuring majority-American investor control: White House
  • Harris is speaking. This time, she isn’t bending to Biden’s bullies
  • Hamas letter to Trump asks for 60-day ceasefire deal to release half of hostages, sources say
  • Trump must make UN funding conditional on real reforms, ex-diplomat urges

    Sign up for our newsletter to receive the latest insights, updates, and exclusive content straight to your inbox! Whether it's industry news, expert advice, or inspiring stories, we bring you valuable information that you won't find anywhere else. Stay connected with us!


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Categories

    • Business (927)
    • Investing (3,032)
    • Politics (3,709)
    • Stock (4)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: sightfulinvest.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 Sightful Invest. All Rights Reserved.